Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240828 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 168.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 29.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 27.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.70 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.5 45.8 49.7 52.8 51.0 51.9 49.0 42.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 16.0 22.0 31.0 38.0 35.0 27.0 18.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.6 103.6 101.5 103.6 107.9 107.9 107.9 107.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -7.0 -21.0 0.0 -11.0 27.0 1.0 20.0 17.0 U VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 42.0 44.0 47.0 52.0 59.0 65.0 65.0 VU VU VU VU U U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.66 CP012024 240828 12UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 168.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.60 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 46.5 45.8 49.7 52.8 51.0 51.9 49.0 42.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 41.0 42.0 44.0 47.0 52.0 59.0 65.0 65.0 VF VF VF VF F F N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 8.6% 1.5% 5.1%