Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    168.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     26.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.0  50.1  53.6  55.4  51.4  52.3  44.1  36.4 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  19.0  27.0  37.0  36.0  33.0  24.0  18.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 103.6 103.6 105.7 107.9 107.9 107.9 107.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0 -14.0  -5.0   0.0   4.0 -20.0   8.0  39.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  45.0  48.0  53.0  60.0  64.0  67.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 CP012024 240828 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.60    168.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     44.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.0  50.1  53.6  55.4  51.4  52.3  44.1  36.4 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  41.0  45.0  48.0  53.0  60.0  64.0  67.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0  -1.0   0.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       10.0%        1.7%        5.9%