Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    169.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.2  53.2  56.6  53.1  53.7  49.4  40.9  22.9 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  25.0  37.0  39.0  35.0  30.0  21.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 103.6 105.7 107.9 107.9 107.9 107.9 105.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -9.0 -13.0   8.0  12.0   0.0   6.0   9.0  74.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  44.0  47.0  49.0  55.0  64.0  65.0  69.0 VU VU VU  U  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.76

 CP012024 240829 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.70    169.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        50.2  53.2  56.6  53.1  53.7  49.4  40.9  22.9 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   41.0  44.0  47.0  49.0  55.0  64.0  65.0  69.0 VF VF VF  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   3.0   4.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       12.5%        2.1%        7.3%