Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240829 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 170.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 7.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.20 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.6 53.0 50.5 53.2 52.8 41.7 32.5 12.2 VU VU VU VU VU VU U F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 36.0 39.0 36.0 35.0 25.0 17.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 110.7 110.7 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 112.9 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 16.0 23.0 26.0 -22.0 8.0 3.0 41.0 U U U U VU U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 46.0 49.0 50.0 59.0 64.0 66.0 70.0 VU VU U U U N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.82 CP012024 240829 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.70 170.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 65.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.6 53.0 50.5 53.2 52.8 41.7 32.5 12.2 VF VF VF VF VF VF N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 43.0 46.0 49.0 50.0 59.0 64.0 66.0 70.0 VF VF F F F N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 1.0 -1.0 0.0 0.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 1.5% 5.4%