Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    171.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.6  49.6  53.1  55.3  48.8  39.2  16.8   9.8 VU VU VU VU VU  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  38.0  35.0  35.0  33.0  23.0  19.0  15.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9 115.7 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     5.0  29.0  15.0  12.0   6.0   3.0  15.0 -29.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  50.0  54.0  63.0  66.0  70.0  72.0 VU  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.84

 CP012024 240829 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     20.90    171.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     66.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        52.6  49.6  53.1  55.3  48.8  39.2  16.8   9.8 VF VF VF VF VF  F  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  49.0  50.0  54.0  63.0  66.0  70.0  72.0 VF  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -3.0  -2.0   3.0   3.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        1.3%        5.3%