Rapid Intensification Guidance CP012024 240829 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 172.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 46.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 38.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.60 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.1 53.6 55.8 57.0 42.7 33.3 10.6 7.5 VU VU VU VU VU U F VF Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 41.0 39.0 36.0 35.0 28.0 21.0 17.0 13.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.7 117.9 117.9 115.7 117.9 115.7 113.6 111.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 16.0 3.0 25.0 -33.0 -7.0 15.0 38.0 -48.0 U U U VU U U N VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 52.0 57.0 64.0 69.0 70.0 71.0 VU U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.84 CP012024 240829 18UTC Storm Located at : 21.30 172.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 87.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 50.1 53.6 55.8 57.0 42.7 33.3 10.6 7.5 VF VF VF VF VF F U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 47.0 48.0 52.0 57.0 64.0 69.0 70.0 71.0 VF F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -1.0 1.0 6.0 3.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 1.2% 5.2%