Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    173.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      3.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.3  56.6  60.5  55.0  40.5  19.4   8.4   8.1 VU VU VU VU  U  N  F VF
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  34.0  35.0  32.0  22.0  19.0  15.0  14.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 120.7 122.9 122.9 120.7 118.6 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0   8.0 -18.0  12.0  11.0  29.0 -25.0  17.0  U  U  U  U  U  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  55.0  60.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  69.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 CP012024 240830 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.40    173.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        53.3  56.6  60.5  55.0  40.5  19.4   8.4   8.1 VF VF VF VF  F  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  50.0  55.0  60.0  65.0  68.0  71.0  69.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -2.0  -1.0   2.0   3.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        0.9%        5.0%