Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    173.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.9  62.0  55.4  43.8  31.3  11.4   7.8  10.9 VU VU VU VU  U  F VF  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  35.0  32.0  26.0  19.0  17.0  16.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 120.7 122.9 122.9 122.9 118.6 116.5 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  -8.0  -4.0 -14.0  30.0  23.0 -31.0 -14.0  U  U  U  U  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  55.0  60.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  67.0 VU  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.88

 CP012024 240830 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    173.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     59.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        57.9  62.0  55.4  43.8  31.3  11.4   7.8  10.9 VF VF VF VF  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   47.0  55.0  60.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  70.0  67.0 VF  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   4.0   3.0   3.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        0.8%        5.0%