Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    174.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.4  56.3  43.8  44.9  18.7   9.5   8.6  14.7 VU VU VU VU  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  31.0  24.0  21.0  21.0  19.0  14.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 122.9 120.7 116.5 118.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -1.0   4.0   4.0  -5.0  46.0  14.0  13.0  -8.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  60.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  62.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 CP012024 240830 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    174.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        62.4  56.3  43.8  44.9  18.7   9.5   8.6  14.7 VF VF VF VF  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  60.0  63.0  66.0  68.0  69.0  68.0  62.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   2.0   0.0   2.0   7.0   4.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        5.4%        0.5%        2.9%