Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    175.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.3  44.3  36.8  20.8   9.5   7.8  13.9  16.5 VU VU  U  N  F VF  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  25.0  23.0  23.0  22.0  13.0  12.0  13.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.1 122.9 125.1 122.9 120.7 118.6 118.6 116.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -30.0  -6.0  15.0  70.0  17.0  42.0  26.0  38.0 VU  U  U  N  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.7%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.1%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.8%        1.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        3.2%        2.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 CP012024 240831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    175.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     88.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        46.3  44.3  36.8  20.8   9.5   7.8  13.9  16.5 VF VF  F  N  U VU  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  66.0  60.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   4.0   8.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   4.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%