Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    175.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     31.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  23.5  13.9  10.0   6.1  10.2  12.7  16.5  U  N  F  F VF  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  17.0  17.0  18.0  19.0  12.0   6.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 117.9 117.9 117.9 117.9 113.6 105.5  99.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  29.0  12.0  -8.0  29.0   7.0  52.0 -52.0  U  N  U  U  N  U  N VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        6.7%        3.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        2.3%        1.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 45kt / 36h        1.6%       14.9%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        4.4%        5.6%        5.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        4.5%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.0%        8.1%        5.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.92

 CP012024 240831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.30    175.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    102.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.1  23.5  13.9  10.0   6.1  10.2  12.7  16.5  F  N  U  U VU  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  65.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  63.0  60.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   5.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%