Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    176.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  18.1  13.7  10.9  10.1  11.4  14.2  20.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   20.0  21.0  21.0  19.0  19.0  12.0   5.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 120.1 117.9 117.9 117.9 113.6 105.5  96.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  46.0   8.0 -84.0  41.0   9.0 -26.0 -39.0  U  N  U VU  N  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   6.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.9%        8.0%        4.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        2.8%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        2.6%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.6%       16.2%        9.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.2%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        5.4%        6.0%        5.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.4%        4.5%        3.9%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        6.9%        4.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.96

 CP012024 240831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    176.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  18.1  13.7  10.9  10.1  11.4  14.2  20.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  67.0  68.0  70.0  67.0  65.0  60.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   7.0   5.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   6.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%