Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    176.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     44.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  13.0  10.7   8.6  11.6  11.6  13.1  24.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  15.0  15.0  16.0  13.0   9.0   5.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 113.6 115.7 113.6 113.6 105.5  99.8  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  23.0 -83.0  -5.0  57.0  18.0 -17.0 -56.0  N  U VU  U  N  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   6.0   3.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.5%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%       12.8%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        5.8%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        5.1%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        5.1%        2.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.8%       22.6%       12.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        9.1%        4.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.7%        8.2%        8.0%
 70kt / 48h        4.3%        6.6%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        7.2%        4.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.80

 CP012024 240901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    176.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.8  13.0  10.7   8.6  11.6  11.6  13.1  24.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  69.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  57.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0   7.0   2.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   6.0   3.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%