Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    176.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8   9.7   8.4  10.4   9.2  11.9  19.5  21.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  17.0  17.0  16.0  13.0   9.0   5.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        117.9 115.7 115.7 117.9 113.6 109.4  98.0  92.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0 -58.0   6.0  17.0  -3.0  23.0 -34.0 -26.0  U VU  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        9.8%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        4.0%        2.5%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.6%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       15.5%        9.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.6%        6.0%        6.3%
 70kt / 48h        4.5%        4.4%        4.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.3%        5.1%        3.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.86

 CP012024 240901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.90    176.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.8   9.7   8.4  10.4   9.2  11.9  19.5  21.8  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  58.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   2.0   4.0   5.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%