Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    176.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7   9.1  12.9  12.6  10.3  14.5  22.7  15.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0  19.0  20.0  19.0  15.0   6.0   6.0   9.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        115.7 115.7 115.7 115.7 113.6 101.6  98.0  92.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -42.0 -22.0   9.0  29.0  17.0 -17.0 -26.0 -19.0 VU VU  U  N  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   9.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        8.1%        4.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        3.1%        1.8%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        2.7%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       13.4%        7.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        4.3%        3.9%        4.1%
 70kt / 48h        3.1%        2.9%        3.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        3.8%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.82

 CP012024 240901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    176.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7   9.1  12.9  12.6  10.3  14.5  22.7  15.9  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  68.0  64.0  64.0  60.0  55.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   2.0   2.0   3.0   5.0   9.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%