Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    179.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         6.9   9.4  11.2  10.5  12.0  20.0  26.3  22.3 VF  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  13.0  11.0  10.0   5.0   7.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.6 113.6 113.6 109.4 105.5  94.4  87.7  89.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -3.0  13.0  21.0  33.0  20.0   0.0 -47.0 -23.0  U  U  U  N  U  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.6%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.8%        9.2%        5.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.7%        3.9%        2.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.5%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.5%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        1.9%       13.9%        7.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.0%        2.5%
 55kt / 48h        3.5%        3.0%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        2.8%        3.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.5%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.66

 CP012024 240901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    179.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    110.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         6.9   9.4  11.2  10.5  12.0  20.0  26.3  22.3 VU  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  52.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   5.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%