Rapid Intensification Guidance

 CP012024 240902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    179.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.5  11.7  11.2  11.1  12.5  28.9  20.7  26.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  12.0   9.0   7.0   5.0   9.0   2.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        132.3 132.3 125.7 119.4 108.0 106.2 104.4 102.7  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  28.0  27.0  33.0 -46.0 -17.0 -17.0 -11.0  U  U  U  N VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  44.0  43.0  44.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        5.3%        2.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.6%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        6.7%        3.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        1.6%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.8%        1.1%        1.5%
 65kt / 72h        3.0%        2.0%        2.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.94

 CP012024 240902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.10    179.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         9.5  11.7  11.2  11.1  12.5  28.9  20.7  26.9  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   58.0  56.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  44.0  43.0  44.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   3.0   3.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%