Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP012024 240704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  21.6  21.3  15.1  21.9  20.8  20.8  20.8  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    8.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 105.5 105.5 105.5 101.6 105.5 105.5 105.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0  -9.0  17.0  42.0 -24.0 -48.0 -48.0 -48.0  U  U  U  N VU VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  64.0  58.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        2.2%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.0%        8.9%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        3.4%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        2.0%        3.2%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.0%        3.2%        2.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.1%       13.6%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.9%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.9%        0.9%        0.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.64

 EP012024 240704 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.60    106.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     38.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  21.6  21.3  15.1  21.9  20.8  20.8  20.8  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  64.0  64.0  58.0  52.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   5.0   8.0   6.0   2.0  -1.0  -1.0  -1.0  N  N  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%