Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012024 240705 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 107.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 4.10 F TC SIZE [%] 38.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 20.8 16.0 17.1 19.8 20.2 20.2 20.2 N N F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 107.4 98.0 98.0 92.7 96.2 89.3 89.3 89.3 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -9.0 -5.0 3.0 20.0 -11.0 -43.0 -43.0 -43.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 64.0 58.0 54.0 53.0 45.0 45.0 45.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 6.0 6.0 2.0 3.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 0.7% 0.6% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 2.7% 1.6% 30kt / 24h 0.4% 0.9% 0.7% 35kt / 24h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 40kt / 24h 0.4% 0.8% 0.6% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 4.4% 2.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.2% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 70kt / 48h 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.12 EP012024 240705 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.40 107.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.