Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012024 240705 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.00 F TC SIZE [%] 49.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.8 15.3 16.4 20.7 17.4 17.4 17.4 17.4 N F F N F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 103.0 103.0 97.7 94.3 92.7 92.7 92.7 92.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 7.0 12.0 4.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 -25.0 U U U U VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 57.0 53.0 52.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 N U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 8.0 6.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.6% 0.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.2% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.84 EP012024 240705 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 108.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.