Rapid Intensification Guidance EP012024 240705 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 110.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.40 F TC SIZE [%] 37.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.8 19.3 17.6 16.6 23.5 23.5 23.5 23.5 F N F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 99.3 99.3 97.7 96.1 91.5 91.5 91.5 91.5 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 5.0 3.0 -7.0 -22.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 52.0 52.0 47.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 44.0 U U U VU VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 3.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.3% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.38 EP012024 240705 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.70 110.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25.