Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022024 240724 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 111.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 3.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 19.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 69.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 19.4 20.4 17.2 13.7 19.0 20.6 23.3 F N N F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 12.0 10.0 9.0 7.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 109.4 101.6 91.0 87.7 77.2 64.3 59.8 58.8 N N N N U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 41.0 52.0 25.0 -11.0 -16.0 12.0 9.0 -8.0 N N U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 65.0 62.0 60.0 57.0 55.0 54.0 N N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 -5.0 2.0 0.0 3.0 F F N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 2.2% 2.8% 2.5% 25kt / 24h 1.6% 8.5% 5.0% 30kt / 24h 1.0% 3.2% 2.1% 35kt / 24h 0.9% 2.9% 1.9% 40kt / 24h 0.9% 2.9% 1.9% 45kt / 36h 0.9% 15.4% 8.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 6.2% 3.1% 55kt / 48h 5.1% 5.1% 5.1% 70kt / 48h 5.1% 2.9% 4.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 EP022024 240724 18UTC Storm Located at : 16.90 111.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.