Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP022024 240725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     21.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     65.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  20.6  18.5  17.6  20.3  14.9  16.3  16.3  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   11.0  10.0   9.0  10.0  10.0  14.0  16.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.4 103.5  99.8  98.0  89.3  89.3  94.4  94.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   0.0 -15.0 -45.0  -1.0  22.0 -17.0 -17.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  68.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   1.0   5.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        1.4%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        7.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.2%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 70kt / 48h        1.4%        1.5%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        2.7%        1.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.20

 EP022024 240725 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.40    112.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.