Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022024 240725 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 36.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 19.9 17.5 17.2 16.8 18.1 14.4 14.8 14.8 N F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 9.0 10.0 8.0 7.0 11.0 14.0 14.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 98.5 86.0 82.7 78.0 84.3 81.1 87.7 87.7 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -12.0 -28.0 -17.0 -4.0 17.0 -6.0 -6.0 -6.0 U VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 63.0 63.0 63.0 64.0 61.0 63.0 63.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 0.0 -2.0 -1.0 4.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.9% 1.2% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 3.5% 2.0% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 1.4% 0.8% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 1.1% 0.7% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 6.8% 3.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 2.3% 1.1% 55kt / 48h 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 70kt / 48h 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 2.3% 1.1% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.68 EP022024 240725 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 113.80 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.