Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022024 240725 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 33.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 23.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.50 F TC SIZE [%] 48.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.7 16.3 16.3 18.1 13.8 15.9 13.0 13.0 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 9.0 8.0 6.0 6.0 4.0 4.0 5.0 5.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.7 68.0 68.0 65.0 62.2 68.0 66.5 66.5 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -28.0 -33.0 -33.0 -6.0 17.0 -1.0 13.0 13.0 VU VU VU U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 60.0 62.0 61.0 59.0 62.0 62.0 N N N N N U N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 -3.0 -3.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 5.8% 2.7% 4.3% 25kt / 24h 1.8% 4.5% 3.2% 30kt / 24h 1.8% 2.0% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 45kt / 36h 0.7% 9.2% 4.9% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.8% 1.9% 55kt / 48h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.12 EP022024 240725 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.20 115.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.