Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022024 240725 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 116.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 26.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 18.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 44.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 16.1 17.7 16.7 15.2 13.4 12.2 12.2 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 6.0 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 4.0 4.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 68.0 65.0 62.2 62.2 56.7 55.4 63.6 63.6 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -19.0 -42.0 -29.0 0.0 -7.0 -20.0 -8.0 -8.0 U VU VU U U VU U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 60.0 59.0 61.0 61.0 59.0 59.0 58.0 58.0 N U N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -5.0 -5.0 -1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 F F N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 0.9% 1.0% 25kt / 24h 0.3% 1.5% 0.9% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.6% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 40kt / 24h 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 2.7% 1.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.86 EP022024 240725 18UTC Storm Located at : 18.30 116.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.