Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022024 240726 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 117.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.80 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.8 18.3 16.6 13.0 16.4 11.6 12.6 12.6 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 5.0 4.0 3.0 3.0 2.0 2.0 1.0 1.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 71.5 68.6 65.8 65.8 61.7 60.4 59.2 59.2 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -44.0 -37.0 -4.0 15.0 -9.0 -15.0 2.0 2.0 VU VU U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 61.0 60.0 60.0 57.0 59.0 59.0 59.0 U N N N U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 0.0 3.0 1.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 F N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.4% 0.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 0.7% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.74 EP022024 240726 00UTC Storm Located at : 18.50 117.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.