Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022024 240726 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 119.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 4.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.60 F TC SIZE [%] 54.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.8 15.0 13.6 13.9 13.8 12.9 16.4 16.4 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 67.9 67.9 65.5 63.2 69.2 67.9 66.7 66.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -6.0 7.0 -3.0 -11.0 -15.0 -8.0 13.0 13.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 59.0 58.0 56.0 55.0 58.0 58.0 57.0 57.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 1.0 0.0 1.0 1.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.80 EP022024 240726 12UTC Storm Located at : 19.10 119.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.