Rapid Intensification Guidance EP022024 240726 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 120.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 30.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 0.50 F TC SIZE [%] 56.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 14.1 12.9 11.9 14.5 17.5 16.4 16.4 16.4 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 72.9 70.5 68.2 75.4 72.9 71.7 71.7 71.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 2.0 7.0 -11.0 -16.0 13.0 -4.0 -4.0 -4.0 U U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 58.0 55.0 55.0 57.0 57.0 56.0 56.0 56.0 U U U U U U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.8% 0.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 24.82 EP022024 240726 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.20 120.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 30.