Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    106.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     47.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.8  19.6  16.9  14.9  12.1  14.6  13.7  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  28.0  18.0  18.0  23.0  16.0  16.0  11.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 134.3 129.6 118.6 110.5 104.8 101.2  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  55.0  81.0  67.0  25.0  16.0  18.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 25kt / 24h        6.3%       21.7%       14.0%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        9.7%        5.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.8%        8.9%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        8.9%        4.9%
 45kt / 36h        4.4%       26.1%       15.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       10.4%        5.2%
 55kt / 48h        9.7%       11.9%       10.8%
 70kt / 48h        3.9%        9.0%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        8.8%       17.4%       13.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 EP032024 240731 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.90    106.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     90.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.3  18.8  19.6  16.9  14.9  12.1  14.6  13.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  75.0  74.0  71.0  69.0  69.0  71.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%