Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     33.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  18.6  15.9  15.6  15.9  11.8  14.5  15.6  F  N  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   26.0  18.0  18.0  22.0  17.0  15.0  13.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 124.3 119.6 110.7 104.4  98.5  91.2  84.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  92.0  60.0  58.0  40.0  52.0  50.0  51.0  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -3.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.5%       10.7%        9.1%
 25kt / 24h       26.5%       50.6%       38.6%
 30kt / 24h       14.6%       35.8%       25.2%
 35kt / 24h       10.7%       35.8%       23.3%
 40kt / 24h        4.6%       35.2%       19.9%
 45kt / 36h       15.4%       54.2%       34.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       35.6%       17.8%
 55kt / 48h       18.6%        9.9%       14.2%
 70kt / 48h        9.9%       24.5%       17.2%
 65kt / 72h        8.4%       23.1%       15.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.32

 EP032024 240731 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    107.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.2  18.6  15.9  15.6  15.9  11.8  14.5  15.6  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  75.0  73.0  69.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  68.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   2.0  -3.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%