Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  16.6  16.2  14.7  14.8  15.4  14.6  12.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  17.0  21.0  20.0  14.0  15.0   7.0  10.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.3 110.1 105.7 103.6  97.4  91.6  82.7  76.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    98.0  82.0  39.0   9.0  48.0  42.0  34.0  34.0  F  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       12.9%       10.0%       11.5%
 25kt / 24h       22.8%       40.0%       31.4%
 30kt / 24h       16.4%       26.1%       21.3%
 35kt / 24h       12.5%       26.1%       19.3%
 40kt / 24h        8.2%       26.1%       17.1%
 45kt / 36h       17.3%       43.0%       30.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       25.1%       12.5%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%        8.1%        9.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%       13.4%       10.7%
 65kt / 72h        4.0%       13.2%        8.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.10

 EP032024 240801 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.40    108.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  16.6  16.2  14.7  14.8  15.4  14.6  12.3  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  72.0  70.0  71.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  69.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   6.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%