Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  17.9  16.4  16.1  13.9  17.0  14.2  13.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  21.0  19.0  15.0  12.0  10.0   6.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        105.1 100.7  98.6  96.5  81.2  83.0  66.5  60.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  40.0   4.0  50.0  30.0  96.0  45.0  40.0  N  N  U  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0   7.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.6%        6.6%        7.6%
 25kt / 24h       13.7%       26.7%       20.2%
 30kt / 24h       10.3%       15.6%       13.0%
 35kt / 24h        8.1%       15.6%       11.9%
 40kt / 24h        8.1%       15.6%       11.9%
 45kt / 36h        9.7%       24.8%       17.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.3%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h        7.5%        7.0%        7.2%
 70kt / 48h        6.7%        6.2%        6.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.9%        5.9%        4.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.90

 EP032024 240801 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     16.80    109.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  17.9  16.4  16.1  13.9  17.0  14.2  13.6  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  70.0  70.0  69.0  64.0  64.0  66.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   0.0  -5.0   7.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%