Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.0  17.6  14.4  15.4  17.1  15.9  20.5  N  N  F  F  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  18.0  13.0  10.0  12.0   6.0   5.0   2.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        100.7  98.6  96.5  92.4  77.7  66.5  63.6  59.4  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  10.0  46.0  29.0  52.0  66.0   5.0  27.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.2%        3.0%        3.1%
 25kt / 24h        5.1%       13.5%        9.3%
 30kt / 24h        3.8%        6.6%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.6%        6.6%        4.6%
 40kt / 24h        2.6%        6.6%        4.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.6%       11.3%        7.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 55kt / 48h        3.3%        2.1%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        1.9%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.2%        1.9%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.70

 EP032024 240801 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.20    110.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     73.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.8  19.0  17.6  14.4  15.4  17.1  15.9  20.5  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  68.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  67.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   2.0  -3.0   0.0   2.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%