Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     76.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.9  16.8  13.5  14.2  21.1  21.2  17.4  22.7  N  F  F  F  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  14.0  10.0  10.0   9.0   6.0   2.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         93.6  91.5  87.4  76.2  67.7  58.6  55.8  53.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  26.0  32.0  34.0  55.0  67.0  11.0  21.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  64.0  66.0  64.0  62.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0  -2.0   0.0   4.0   0.0   6.0   1.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.3%        2.8%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       10.0%        7.0%
 30kt / 24h        3.7%        5.0%        4.3%
 35kt / 24h        2.7%        5.0%        3.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.7%        5.0%        3.8%
 45kt / 36h        3.1%        6.8%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.1%
 55kt / 48h        1.5%        1.1%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.46

 EP032024 240801 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     17.30    111.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.