Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032024 240802 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 112.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 55.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 60.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 25.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 79.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.7 16.3 18.0 17.6 18.4 22.6 22.0 22.4 F F F F F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 14.0 10.0 8.0 11.0 5.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 83.5 79.8 76.2 72.7 64.6 58.6 46.7 43.2 N N U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 39.0 13.0 32.0 45.0 39.0 41.0 24.0 N N U N N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 68.0 65.0 64.0 65.0 64.0 63.0 60.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -3.0 0.0 2.0 2.0 3.0 9.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.9% 3.9% 3.9% 25kt / 24h 4.1% 10.7% 7.4% 30kt / 24h 2.9% 5.9% 4.4% 35kt / 24h 1.5% 5.6% 3.5% 40kt / 24h 1.5% 5.5% 3.5% 45kt / 36h 1.5% 9.2% 5.3% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 3.7% 1.8% 55kt / 48h 0.5% 1.0% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.06 EP032024 240802 00UTC Storm Located at : 17.80 112.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 55.