Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032024 240802 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 113.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 30.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.00 F TC SIZE [%] 74.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.1 19.8 18.2 18.9 22.3 19.6 23.6 21.7 F N F N N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 10.0 8.0 11.0 7.0 3.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 74.8 71.2 67.7 64.3 56.5 42.9 39.3 37.0 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 49.0 36.0 42.0 40.0 62.0 26.0 35.0 23.0 N N N N N U N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 69.0 65.0 63.0 63.0 62.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 N N N N N N N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 3.0 1.0 0.0 13.0 3.0 6.0 2.0 N N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.2% 2.3% 3.2% 25kt / 24h 2.3% 5.6% 3.9% 30kt / 24h 2.0% 2.6% 2.3% 35kt / 24h 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 40kt / 24h 1.8% 2.5% 2.2% 45kt / 36h 1.3% 3.9% 2.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.3% 0.6% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 26.80 EP032024 240802 06UTC Storm Located at : 18.00 113.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60.