Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     74.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.1  18.9  20.8  18.8  21.3  17.0  20.3  26.2  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    7.0   8.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         61.2  57.7  40.8  38.0  32.9  29.3  19.7  18.7  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  50.0  53.0  57.0  30.0  25.0  49.0  46.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  60.0  59.0  59.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   5.0   1.0   3.0   6.0   3.0   8.0   5.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.0%        7.3%       14.7%
 25kt / 24h        9.0%        8.1%        8.5%
 30kt / 24h        9.0%        4.4%        6.7%
 35kt / 24h        9.0%        4.4%        6.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%        4.4%        6.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.24

 EP032024 240802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.50    114.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.