Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     28.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      7.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     62.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.7  19.5  19.1  25.1  21.1  25.0  22.5  28.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   4.0   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         52.7  35.8  33.0  30.4  26.7  15.7  13.7   8.3  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  68.0  64.0  35.0  25.0  86.0  43.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  U  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  60.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   5.0   5.0  10.0   6.0  11.0   8.0   7.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.5%        5.3%       13.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.0%        4.8%        5.4%
 30kt / 24h        6.0%        2.4%        4.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.8%        2.3%        2.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.86

 EP032024 240802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.60    115.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.