Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     70.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  17.8  22.9  22.2  22.0  25.0  29.3  36.5  N  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         44.6  41.5  30.4  27.9  24.3  15.7  13.7   9.1  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    53.0  46.0  28.0  17.0  28.0  53.0  69.0  19.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  60.0  60.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   3.0   3.0   8.0   5.0   5.0   9.0   7.0   8.0  N  N  U  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        8.3%        2.7%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.4%        2.6%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        1.4%        1.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.68

 EP032024 240803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.70    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.