Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     42.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     72.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.3  20.0  21.1  20.3  26.0  28.0  33.3  38.3  F  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         41.5  30.4  27.9  26.7  16.7  14.7  14.7   9.1  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  21.0  31.0  17.0  44.0  69.0  19.0  -1.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  60.0  58.0  58.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  56.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   6.0   3.0   2.0   6.0   6.0   9.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.0%        1.1%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.1%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.36

 EP032024 240803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     18.80    118.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.