Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032024 240803 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 80.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 59.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 28.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.70 F TC SIZE [%] 72.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 19.1 16.5 18.8 29.3 32.9 39.6 42.4 F N F N N U U VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 25.4 22.9 21.7 19.3 10.7 8.7 4.1 4.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 4.0 1.0 -15.0 9.0 65.0 44.0 35.0 2.0 U U U U N N N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 59.0 58.0 59.0 60.0 59.0 56.0 56.0 N U U U N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 3.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 7.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 4.6% 0.0% 2.3% 25kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 25.06 EP032024 240803 12UTC Storm Located at : 18.90 119.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 80.