Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.2  19.2  22.0  28.4  30.2  36.5  42.1  43.5  F  N  N  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         27.9  26.7  24.3  16.7  14.7   8.3   9.1   9.1 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -19.0  -5.0  41.0  44.0   3.0   4.0 -13.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  62.0  64.0  64.0  59.0  57.0  54.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   1.0   1.0   1.0   3.0   9.0   9.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.0%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.66

 EP032024 240803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.10    120.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.