Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     68.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  22.0  27.4  30.8  37.6  45.0  46.1  49.9  F  N  N  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         26.7  17.7  16.7  15.7   9.1   9.1   9.1   5.8 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -29.0 -13.0  -6.0  25.0  25.0  41.0  -6.0  -6.0 VU  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  62.0  63.0  61.0  62.0  58.0  57.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   2.0   1.0   2.0   5.0   8.0   5.0   8.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        0.0%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.30

 EP032024 240804 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.30    121.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.