Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     63.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.1  27.6  29.9  33.6  42.5  49.2  51.3  50.4  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         35.5  26.7  25.7  24.7  19.1  19.1  19.1  20.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    15.0  35.0  51.0  69.0  34.0  26.0 -12.0 -15.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  55.0  53.0  47.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   7.0   2.0   4.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 24.18

 EP032024 240804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.70    122.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.