Rapid Intensification Guidance

 EP032024 240804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -20.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.4  25.3  30.7  36.7  43.9  41.4  46.0  47.4  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         36.7  35.7  34.7  34.7  29.1  29.1  29.1  30.9  U  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  52.0  60.0  60.0  17.0  -3.0 -11.0   6.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  45.0  40.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   3.0   4.0   3.0   5.0   2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 23.96

 EP032024 240804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.80    123.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.