Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032024 240804 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 7.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.30 F TC SIZE [%] 64.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.5 30.0 36.6 42.5 46.2 43.6 43.8 45.5 N N U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 40.7 39.7 39.7 40.7 34.1 34.1 35.0 40.7 U U U U VU VU U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 47.0 55.0 47.0 27.0 17.0 19.0 -9.0 -39.0 N N N U U U U VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 60.0 58.0 55.0 50.0 41.0 32.0 N N N U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 3.0 7.0 3.0 7.0 3.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.92 EP032024 240804 18UTC Storm Located at : 19.80 124.60 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50.