Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032024 240805 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 125.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 45.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 9.40 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 1.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.00 F TC SIZE [%] 60.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 25.5 32.0 43.5 45.8 39.5 40.9 33.7 33.7 N U VU VU U VU U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 44.7 44.7 44.7 45.7 44.7 44.7 45.7 45.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 27.0 27.0 38.0 15.0 -4.0 -16.0 -16.0 N U U N U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 64.0 62.0 60.0 59.0 54.0 43.0 40.0 40.0 N N N U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 0.0 4.0 3.0 2.0 4.0 1.0 1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.74 EP032024 240805 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.00 125.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 45.