Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032024 240805 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 126.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.80 F TC SIZE [%] 71.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 32.9 40.0 42.9 43.0 40.2 37.5 37.5 37.5 U U VU VU U U U U Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 49.7 49.7 50.7 49.7 49.7 50.7 50.7 50.7 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 46.0 39.0 41.0 16.0 15.0 -8.0 -8.0 -8.0 N N N U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 61.0 61.0 59.0 58.0 48.0 41.0 41.0 41.0 N N U U U VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 2.0 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.72 EP032024 240805 06UTC Storm Located at : 20.10 126.10 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40.