Rapid Intensification Guidance EP032024 240805 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 127.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 4.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.00 F TC SIZE [%] 76.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 41.9 38.7 36.5 36.8 32.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 VU U U U U N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 55.7 55.7 54.7 54.7 59.8 60.9 60.9 60.9 U U U U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 27.0 -7.0 0.0 0.0 -17.0 -47.0 -47.0 -47.0 U U U U U VU VU VU Humidity 700-500 hPa 62.0 61.0 58.0 51.0 43.0 35.0 35.0 35.0 N N U U VU VU VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 3.0 5.0 2.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 25kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 45kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 23.74 EP032024 240805 18UTC Storm Located at : 20.50 127.40 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35.